FAO-WFP early warnings on severe food insecurity, October 2022 to January 2023 Outlook, Hunger Hotspots

 A succinct summary

The World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) issued a warning that acute food insecurity is projected to get worse in 19 nations or situations (referred to as hunger hotspots) between October 2022 and January 2023.

Global acute food insecurity is still becoming worse. Up to 205 million people in 45 countries are anticipated to experience acute food insecurity and require immediate assistance (IPC/CH Phase 3 or higher or equivalent), according to the recently released Global Report on Food Crisis 2022 Mid-year Update. This number is anticipated to reach up to 222 million individuals in 53 countries and territories covered by the GRFC 2022 if additional data from the most recent study of 2021 is incorporated for 8 countries and territories. The seven-year history of the report shows that this is the greatest figure ever. According to projections (IPC/CH Phase 4 and higher), 45 million people in 37 countries will have so little food that they will be extremely malnourished, in danger of dying or have already succumbed to starvation and death. This includes the 970 000 persons who, barring intervention, are predicted to be in Catastrophic circumstances (IPC/CH Phase 5) in 2022.

Yemen, South Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Somalia all have populations that are either projected to or are already facing starvation (Catastrophe, IPC Phase 5) or are at risk of deteriorating into catastrophic conditions because they already have critical food insecurity (Emergency, IPC Phase 4) and are dealing with extremely serious aggravating factors. The most immediate assistance is needed for these nations.

Nearly 6 million people are anticipated to be in Emergency circumstances (IPC Phase 4) by November in Afghanistan, where the degree of food insecurity suggests that severe loss of life may already be occurring in the forecast period. As another hard winter coincides with the lean season after that, the likelihood of severe food insecurity and a considerable loss of life will probably increase. The IPC claimed that 20 000 people in the central highlands risked hunger during the most recent lean season, marking the first time since the country's establishment that Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) results had been made public.

While the extreme food insecurity in Tigray has increased since November 2021, humanitarian access has once again stalled as a result of rekindled hostilities in Ethiopia. Recent WFP evaluations have shown a rise in food insecurity inside Tigray in the absence of current IPC analyses in Ethiopia. The factors that led to the risk of hunger warnings issued in 2021 continue to be the situation's biggest concern. Due to a lack of commercially available commodities and services, significant conflict levels, and inadequate humanitarian aid, the Famine Review Committee warned that Tigray will be at risk of famine through December 2021. Concerns about extreme levels of acute food insecurity in Amhara and Afar continue to be elevated because of ongoing violence and insecurity, which restricts humanitarian access.

The most severe drought in recent memory will worsen in southern and eastern Ethiopia as a fifth consecutive unsuccessful rainy season, further jeopardizing the precarious livelihoods of around 10 million people who are already severely food insecure. More than 13 million people in northern Ethiopia were expected to be severely food insecure in 2022, making the total number of people in this situation 20.4 million.

Despite the conclusion of the lean season, record-high acute food insecurity in Nigeria—projected at 19.5 million people in Crisis or worse (CH Phase 3 and above) up to August—is anticipated to persist during the outlook period. Importantly, the vast majority of individuals who are critically food insecure (CH Phase 4) live in conflict-affected areas, where it is still difficult to get access to life-saving aid. In the states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, nearly half of these individuals (43%) live in areas that humanitarian organizations are now unable to reach. xxi Nationally, 1 million people are anticipated to reside in regions that are inhospitable to international humanitarian organizations by 2022.

With the likelihood of a fifth below-average rainy season, high food costs, and ongoing violence, areas of the Bay region in Somalia are likely to experience famine in the fourth quarter of the year. This is because there are severe financial gaps for humanitarian assistance. It is anticipated that between October and December, the risk of famine would increase in a number of other central and southern Somalian regions. Between October and December 2022, 6.7 million people are anticipated to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above), including 2.2 million individuals in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 300,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

A fourth consecutive year of flooding in South Sudan is a serious issue because the majority of the projected starving people (IPC Phase 5) live in flood-prone counties in the Jonglei, Lakes, and Unity states, as well as Greater Pibor. New floods are anticipated to keep food insecurity at extremely high levels, outweighing the positive effects of an upcoming harvesting season, when combined with macroeconomic difficulties and the repercussions of protracted conflict.

Compared to the 19 million people predicted to reach Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) by the end of 2022, the situation for food insecurity in Yemen is anticipated to be less dire. Some of the estimates' underlying assumptions—that the violence would worsen and humanitarian aid would decline precipitously as a result of a lack of funding—were proven false, albeit the study failed to fully account for how the war in Ukraine would affect global markets. The IPC analysis is still being updated.

As in the last edition of this report, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Kenya, the Sahel region, Sudan, and the Syrian Arab Republic continues to be of extremely high concern. This time around, Pakistan and the Central African Republic are included in the alert. A significant portion of the population in each of these hotspots is suffering from acute food insecurity, and the conditions are anticipated to get worse in the next months due to deteriorating driving conditions.

Since the June 2022 edition, Malawi, Guatemala, and Honduras have been added to the list of hotspot nations. Hunger continues to be a problem in Madagascar, Zimbabwe, and Sri Lanka.

Key trends show that organized violence and war will continue to grow in 2022, remaining the leading causes of acute hunger. Furthermore, in some areas, weather extremes including tropical storms, flooding, and drought continue to be major factors. Particularly concerning is the likelihood that the Horn of Africa drought, which has already lasted for two years, would get worse due to an impending, historically rare fifth weak rainy season.

On the economic front, rising domestic food and energy prices are a result of high worldwide prices for agricultural and hydrocarbon commodities. Many central banks, particularly those of large industrialized economies, have implemented monetary tightening policies to combat rising inflation rates, but doing so has increased the cost of borrowing and reduced financial inflows to developing nations. These factors are enhancing the likelihood of a recession or a considerable slowdown in major economies like the European Union and China.

macroeconomic hazard for emerging markets. In turn, this is making it harder for certain nations to pay for the import of necessities and service their debt, which has grown quickly in many economies over the past ten years. Many governments are forced to enact austerity measures that have an impact on the incomes and purchasing power of households. As a result, rates of poverty and severe food insecurity are rising, along with the dangers of civil upheaval sparked by growing socioeconomic grievances, and these trends are only expected to continue in the coming months.

Many of these hunger hotspots no longer receive as much humanitarian aid due to funding shortages and increased operational costs. Without increased money, it is anticipated that throughout the forecast period, all forms of humanitarian aid will be significantly curtailed.

The 19 famine hotspots urgently require targeted humanitarian intervention to save lives and livelihoods. In addition, humanitarian efforts are essential in six of these hotspots, including Yemen, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, and South Sudan, to save further starvation and death. This paper offers recommendations on emergency response priorities that are country-specific as well as proactive steps to meet current humanitarian needs and ensure immediate protective measures before new requirements arise.